The 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico is set to be a spectacle, but the question of whether cartel violence will be under control looms large. With nearly 1 million fans descending on the country, the eyes of the world will be on Mexico's ability to ensure a safe and secure environment. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has a chilling history, and its response to the death of its leader, Nemesio "El Mencho" Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, serves as a stark reminder of the chaos it has long caused. The cartel's violent rampage, including the burning of cargo trucks and buses to create roadblocks, resulted in the deaths of 30 government agents and a similar number of cartel members over two days. The CJNG's destructive campaign sparked a state of emergency in Jalisco, and its impact is still felt in Guadalajara, one of the key Mexican locations due to host the tournament. The Jalisco state city is a chilling reminder of the cartel's reach and the potential for violence during the World Cup. The CJNG's response to El Mencho's death raises a deeper question: will the cartel's internal disputes bubble over once the international community averts its gaze from Mexico and thousands of visitors depart? The CJNG's lack of a clear successor could stoke in-fighting and lead to a resumption of violent activities in various parts of Mexico. The CJNG's history of violence and its response to El Mencho's death suggest that the risk of cartel violence during the World Cup is real. However, experts have also noted that the cartels may not have as great an impact as feared, if only out of their own self-interest. In fact, the cartels appear to be scaling down their violent activities ahead of the World Cup, as they look to exploit the boost to the local economy. The first five months of 2026 saw a 30% drop in incidents of organized crime violence in Guadalajara and a 13% drop in Monterrey, suggesting that the cartels are prioritizing economic gain over violence. The expanded coordination between federal and local agencies, as part of Mexico's Plan Kukulkan, could even benefit the country's fight against organized crime after the World Cup comes to an end. However, the risk of violence always remains, given the fierce competition for tourist dollars. The CJNG's history of violence and its response to El Mencho's death suggest that the risk of cartel violence during the World Cup is real. However, the cartels' self-interest and the expanded coordination between federal and local agencies could help to mitigate the risk. The World Cup provides an opportunity for Mexico to showcase its ability to ensure a safe and secure environment, and the country's efforts to combat cartel violence could be a key part of that effort. In my opinion, the World Cup provides an opportunity for Mexico to showcase its ability to ensure a safe and secure environment, and the country's efforts to combat cartel violence could be a key part of that effort. The tournament could serve as a turning point in Mexico's fight against organized crime, and the country's success in ensuring a safe environment could have a lasting impact on its reputation and economy. However, the risk of violence always remains, and the CJNG's history of violence and its response to El Mencho's death suggest that the country must remain vigilant and continue to work towards a safer and more secure future.
